Trade Deadline Moves

As Aaron Gleeman discussed the Twins’ somewhat surprising pre-All Star game numbers in his blog, he took a look back at the Twins’ first-half records since 2001. With the exception of the 2001 season where the Twins took a second half plunge with a 30-45 record after the break, each of the seasons since have seen the team put up a winning second half record. Now if the Twins were your typical big market “stop-at-no-cost-to-win-now-even-if-it-means-depleting-our-farm-system” club, I might be spending this time and space talking about the great trades that then GM Terry Ryan made and how it helped push the club to the front of the AL Central race. Now don’t get me wrong, the Twins have made some trade-deadline moves in the past, such as bringing in Rick Reed and Shannon Stewart, among others. But more often than not, the Twins haven’t made that big last-minute midnight deal on July 31. Let’s recap each season and look at what moves the Twins made (or didn’t make) during the second half of the year.

2001: Traded for Todd Jones & Rick Reed. Claimed Casey Blake off waivers.

2002: No moves made, but made the playoffs for the first time since winning the 1991 World Series.

2003: Traded for Shannon Stewart and Jesse Orosco.

2004: Traded away Doug Mientkiewicz for minor leaguer Justin Jones, who is no longer with the organization.

2005: Received Bret Boone from Seattle on July 11 and was released on July 31st, never to play again.

2006: Released Ruben Sierra and Tony Batista. Traded away Juan Castro and Kyle Lohse for minor leaguers. Acquired Phil Nevin from Chicago Cubs.

2007: Traded away Luis Castillo for two minor leaguers. Traded away Ramon Ortiz for minor leaguer. Released Jeff Cirillo.

Now it’s 2008 and the Twins find themselves in the same situation they have faced in each of the past five seasons—staring at one of their rivals perched atop the standings. The next few weeks will be critical for the team as they spend much of the rest of the season on the road, where they haven’t fared nearly as well as they have at home. In addition to the tough schedule, players who had been on the DL, (Michael Cuddyer, Matt Tolbert, and Adam Everett) are scheduled to come back, and the players who initially took their place (Denard Span, Brian Buscher, and Alexi Castilla) have established themselves as everyday players in the lineup and on the field. Another issue that the team faces is the recent success of 2006 phenom Francisco Liriano following Tommy John surgery and an unsuccessful comeback attempt at the beginning of the season. Now normally this wouldn’t be such a problem, except that the Twins’ young hurlers (Scott Baker, Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn, and Kevin Slowey) have no doubt met expectations so far this year.

Now I’m not completely sure if every Twins fan thinks about what move the brilliant Bill Smith is planning next, but I like to play fantasy GM whenever situations like this come up. If I was Bill Smith, here’s what I would do:

1) The first move I would make would be a page out of Terry Ryan’s book (see Chapter 10 : 2006 Minnesota Twins). Cut your losses and get rid of the players that aren’t helping your team. Mike Lamb is not part of the team’s future, even with his guaranteed $7.6 million salary. No one who hits for a .220 average on a team in need of a power third baseman deserves to stick around. (FYI: The salaries of Sierra & Batista only totaled about $1.5 million combined.)

2) Stop using the excuse that we haven’t seen the full potential of Adam Everett because of injury. What you see is what you got, and you ain’t got much.

3) As much as it pains me to say this…Craig Monroe, I don’t think there’s room for you either in Twinkie Town. After using you in the role that I had hoped you could fill (right-handed power off the bench) in the series against Boston before the break, you killed two rallies in two much needed road games.

4) Finally, when I call up Liriano towards the end of July, Livan Hernandez will be on his way out. Even though credited with 9 first-half wins, he did nothing to earn them, entering the break in either last or second to last in ERA, opponent's batting average, opponent's on-base percentage, opponent's slugging percentage, and opponent's OPS.

So to finally conclude…I wouldn’t make any outside moves. The rumors that the Twins may be interested in Adrian Beltre from Seattle or picking up Freddy Garcia via free agency is absurd. You can’t keep veteran players around if they simply aren’t producing when you have young guys proving they deserve a chance. There are enough guys on the team that have playoff experience (Cuddyer, Mauer, Morneau, Punto, Redmond) to guide the younger players through the second half of the season. The likelihood of the Twins dumping $17.4 million guaranteed is about as likely as Babe Ruth coming back to solidify the rotation and add some pop to the lineup. A more likely scenario could be to try and trade Hernandez to an NL team in need of starting pitching, Everett to a team in need of a late-inning defensive replacement, and Monroe to a team which needs a right-handed bat off the bench.

But that’s just my fantasy two cents…